How public housing generates value for all Ontarians
A new, first-of-its-kind analysis of public housing investment across the GTHA shows that public housing generates a measurable and substantial form of value: social value, or the improvement in people’s quality of life over time.
The Public Housing Dividend used advanced modelling with real Canadian population and housing data, in tandem with real world and agency data, to examine how public housing investment decisions could shape economic and social outcomes through 2050. Its findings show that the social value generated by housing is not incidental — it is a direct result of building conditions, stability, and access to safe, affordable homes.
How is social value determined?
Social value is calculated by tracking improvements in people’s well being and lived outcomes, and then using established population-level data and economic methods to convert those improvements into dollar values.
Social value grows when housing conditions improve
The strongest social value outcomes occur when the region invests in both renewal and new construction of public housing. This can create substantial value that goes beyond public housing’s residents:
$48.3 billion in total social value
$44.2 billion in resident social value – improvements driven by increased affordability, better health outcomes, greater access to services and opportunities
$4.2 billion in community social value – value created for the neighbours of public housing communities, where all people enjoy thriving and resilient neighbourhoods
These gains reflect improvements in the factors that contribute social value, including physical and mental health, family stability, access to services and safety. As buildings are repaired and new units become available, more residents experience stable, affordable, high‑quality housing — and these improvements accumulate over time, creating spillover benefits for people who live nearby and interact with public housing residents who are happier and healthier.
Social value declines sharply when funding is reduced
Reduced funding in public housing leads to a measurable loss of social value. By 2050, The Public Housing Dividend projects the GTHA could face significant consequences of that decision:
$8.8 billion decline in total social value
$2.7 billion decline in community social value
139 building closures and 13,322 lost units
The decline is driven by worsening building conditions and fewer people housed. Research shows that when buildings deteriorate, residents’ health, well-being and satisfaction falls, and families experience greater instability. These effects compound, producing negative outcomes for the residents of public housing and the neighbourhoods they call home.
Building condition is a major driver of social value
Across scenarios, the condition of buildings is one of the strongest predictors of social value outcomes. Better building conditions correlate with higher well‑being scores, stronger satisfaction, and greater stability. Through a combined renewal and construction program, The Public Housing Dividend shows that no residents of the Collaborative’s portfolio would be living in critical condition buildings by 2050.
Social value increases when more people are housed
Housing access is shown as another key driver of social value. If we invest in renewing and expanding public housing, by 2050 it is expected that 239,500 people could be living in publicly owned homes, compared to 153,304 under a scenario where funding is reduced. This is a difference of more than 86,000 residents—about the total population of Peterborough, Ontario.
Social value is linked to broader system impacts
While avoided costs are not counted as social value, they reinforce the same pattern: when housing conditions improve, downstream pressures are reduced.
In a scenario where governments invest in expansion and renewal of public housing, The Public Housing Dividend expects the region would avoid:
524,000+ inpatient hospital days (cumulative, 2026 to 2050)
156,000+ emergency department visits (cumulative, 2026 to 2050)
44,200+ justice‑system events (cumulative, 2026 to 2050)
These avoided events reflect the same underlying dynamic that drives social value: stable housing reduces stress, improves safety, and supports healthier, more secure households.
The data shows a clear conclusion
Across all scenarios, the evidence points to a single, consistent finding: housing investment generates social value, and disinvestment destroys it.
The social value story in the data is not abstract. It is quantifiable, cumulative, and directly tied to the choices made about investment in public housing.
The Public Housing Dividend was published by the GTHA Community Housing Collaborative. It was produced by the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis (CANCEA), supported by Scotiabank.