RESEARCH REPORT · 2026
The Public Housing Dividend
Canada’s most comprehensive analysis of the economic and social impact of public housing investment.
Key Findings
Investing in the renewal and new construction of public housing has the power to shape the region’s future, delivering far-reaching gains over 25 years.
Nearly 3:1
Cost-benefit ratio
Every $1 invested delivers $2.80 in total quantified benefits (economic + social value)
$50B
Economic growth
Generates $49.6B in new economic activity by 2050
15K
Full-time jobs annually (2050)
Creates 354,000 years of steady full-time work by 2050
524,000+
hospital days avoided
between 2026 and 2050
52,000+
years of homelessness prevented
between 2026 and 2050
$4.2B
in system-wide savings
Lower ER use, hospital stays, policing, and shelter demand between 2026 and 2050
Every $1 invested delivers $2.80 in total quantified benefits (economic + social value)
Generates $49.6B in new economic activity by 2050
Creates 354,000 years of steady full-time work by 2050
between 2026 and 2050
between 2026 and 2050
Lower ER use, hospital stays, policing, and shelter demand between 2026 and 2050
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Underinvestment costs the region billions. Renewal and new construction generate the strongest returns, showing public housing is essential economic infrastructure that can serve as a powerful engine for economic growth.
The report was produced by the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis (CANCEA) and supported by Scotiabank.
WHAT’S INSIDE
01 Introduction
02 Public housing system baseline
03 Housing stock and portfolio outcomes
04 Value proposition and metrics
05 Social value impact
06 Economic impact
07 Service-system and fiscal effects
08 Equity and distributional effects
09 Conclusion and implications
About CANCEA
The Collaborative engaged the Canadian Centre for Economic Analysis and its ONEMODEL agentic-based simulation technology to undertake the world's first empirically grounded region-wide study of the economic and social value of public housing investment, the findings of which became The Public Housing Dividend.
Developed over a decade by a consortium of PhDs led by Dr. Paul Smetanin, ONEMODEL integrates more than 300 topics within a single system, enabling the study to reflect the distinct characteristics, circumstances, and wellbeing of individuals as they live their lives, pursue their motivations, and respond to changes in their environments under different public housing investment events. It shows how changes in public housing investment ripple through people, communities, and the broader economy in ways conventional modelling cannot capture.